Two fronts are too much for Putin: how the war in Ukraine has drained Russia's resources for defending Syria.

The sudden advance of pro-Turkish forces in Syria has emerged as one of the significant military events in the Middle East in recent times. The opposition forces against President Bashar al-Assad are led by the Islamist militant group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" and its allies.

The Assad government and army controlled major cities, surrounding rural areas, and key highways. However, recent days have seen a shift: rebels are capturing important settlements, and for the first time since the beginning of the civil war, the authorities are losing control over Aleppo, the second-largest city and an "impregnable fortress."

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on December 1 that rebels have advanced towards the northern city of Hama and areas in Idlib after capturing Aleppo. Syrian troops withdrawing from Aleppo are regrouping, with additional brigades being sent to assist in the upcoming counteroffensive.

Erdoğan Deals a Blow to Putin's Image

The Russian army is providing air support to the Syrian military, with a series of airstrikes carried out in the Idlib and Hama regions. The Syrian opposition rescue service "White Helmets" announced on the morning of December 2 that at least 25 people have died in the northwest as a result of these bombings. The total number of casualties from Syrian and Russian strikes has risen to 56 since November 27, including 20 children.

Russia's military intervention in Syria began back in 2015 and helped turn the tide of the war in favor of Bashar al-Assad's forces, with the bombings in Aleppo allowing government forces to gain full control of the city in 2016. However, the global situation has changed since then: Russia is bogged down in the so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine and will not be able to fully engage in the Syrian conflict, according to international expert Ilya Kusa from the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

It is also important to understand that besides Russia, the Syrian authorities have other allies. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Damascus to express Tehran's support. The core of support for Assad's regime, according to Ilya Kusa, consists of pro-Iranian and pro-Iraqi Shiite groups. Dozens of fighters from these groups have already crossed the Syrian border near Abu Kamal, including "Popular Mobilization Forces," "Kata'ib Hezbollah," and "Fatimiyun."

"In the event of a significant change in the situation, Iran may send regular troops. We are witnessing a carefully planned 'game' by Turkey. The timing in Ankara is well-calibrated; the two main allies of Damascus are unable to protect it. Russia is weakened by the war in Ukraine, and Iran is preoccupied with its confrontation with Israel," he points out.

For Turkish leader Recep Erdoğan, it is crucial to strengthen his positions in Syria before Donald Trump assumes the presidency of the United States. This move will automatically enhance his status as a negotiator regarding Ukraine, believes international observer Maxim Yali.

Putin has very few resources to support Assad's regime: the main engine of the war, the Wagner Group, is functioning poorly, and regular troops are not achieving similar results.

"Putin needs to secure the Donetsk region by January 20 [the day of Trump's inauguration] to gain a strong position in negotiations. To the Russians, he will show that the objectives of the 'special operation' have been accomplished," the observer added.

Is Turkey Aiming to Overthrow Bashar al-Assad's Regime?

Pro-Turkish groups will continue to expand their spheres of influence and capture territories in Syria. The advance from Aleppo to the northern areas of Hama has been halted for now, but in the northeast, they are approaching territories controlled by the Kurds.

The National Intelligence Organization of Turkey has already reported its initial successes — the neutralization of one of the leaders of the YPG (People's Protection Units, the Syrian branch of the "Kurdistan Workers' Party," which is banned in Turkey. — Ed.) Yashar Chekik in the area of the city of Tal Rifaat.

"If the front holds along the current line for two weeks, the militants will not move south towards Damascus. I do not think Turkey aims to overthrow Assad's regime; other regional players are unlikely to agree with such plans," concluded Ilya Kusa.

It is worth noting that the Syrian opposition forces have captured a significant amount of trophy equipment during the offensive. They have come into possession of Russian and Iranian tanks, armored personnel carriers, howitzers, and aerial bombs.

The Kremlin considers the rebels' actions to be "an encroachment on Syria's sovereignty." Russia demands that order be restored in the country.