The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, which revised its economic growth forecast for this year from 4.6% to 3.5% mid-year, has improved it to 3.9%, reported the department's spokesperson Valeria Voytenko during a discussion organized by the Economic Strategy Center in Kyiv on Tuesday.
"In November, we revised our expectations for 2024. We raised the GDP growth forecast to 3.9% and inflation to 9.5%. However, for 2025, the key figures, considering that the main forecast assumptions and trends have not changed, remain the same as in the June forecast: GDP growth of 2.7% and inflation of 9.5%," – the correspondent of Interfax-Ukraine conveyed her words.
She explained that the more conservative forecast compared to other economists is due to the need for caution when preparing the budget and the presence of downward risks: the military situation and the risk of potential reduction in support from partners.
According to Voytenko, the key factors affecting GDP dynamics remain consumer demand, migration, financial aid, and exports.
In mid-November, the Ministry of Economy assessed Ukraine's GDP growth in October 2024 compared to October 2023 at 1.3%, which is worse than the September figure of 3.8%, but better than the August and July figures of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively.
Thus, for January-October 2024, the GDP growth compared to the same period in 2023 is estimated by the Ministry of Economy at 4.2%, while for the nine months of 2024 it was 4.5%, for eight months – 3.9%, and for seven months – 4%.
According to State Statistics, year-on-year inflation at the end of October 2024 increased to 9.7% from 8.6% at the end of September, 7.5% at the end of August, and 5.4% at the end of July.
The National Bank of Ukraine raised its economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.7% to 4% at the end of October, and for 2025 from 4.1% to 4.3%. At the same time, the NBU downgraded its inflation forecast for 2024 from 8.5% to 9.7% and for 2025 from 6.6% to 6.9%.