Romanian "Trump": How a pro-Russian politician is winning the presidential elections.
In neighboring Romania, after counting 100% of the votes in the first round of the presidential elections, the candidates who will face off in the final match on December 8 have been determined. According to the results from the Romanian Central Election Commission, the independent candidate, the far-right pro-Russian politician Kelin Georgescu, unexpectedly topped the list with 22.94% support. Georgescu, who does not represent any party and lacks his own political force, ran a campaign primarily on social media, earning him the nickname TikTok candidate. Ideologically, he is a typical right-wing populist, akin to a Romanian Trump. Given that no polls had predicted his leading position, which would allow him to advance to the second round, this outcome is, without exaggeration, a sensation.
In second place with 19.18% of the votes was Elena Lascu, a representative of the opposition "Union for the Salvation of Romania," a pro-European and pro-Ukrainian candidate. She narrowly surpassed the incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu by just 2,742 votes, who finished third and was considered the almost unquestionable favorite of the race until the end. Finally, George Simion, the leader of the "Alliance for the Union of Romanians" (AUR), who was confidently predicted to secure second place and advance to the second round, finished fourth with approximately 14% of the votes.
62-year-old Georgescu, in interviews three years ago, called the NATO missile defense shield in the Romanian town of Deveselu a "shame of diplomacy," claiming that the North Atlantic Alliance would not protect any of its members in the event of a Russian attack. He also criticized U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and publicly expressed admiration for Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban for their ability to conduct international negotiations and defend national interests.
Why Romania is Extremely Important to Putin
In this context, experts note that particular attention is paid to the so-called Eastern European bloc — Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Poland.
"In this bloc, Poland and Romania are especially significant for Putin, partly because they are large territories through which supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine occur. Putin is striving to change the political leadership in these countries, which holds pro-Ukrainian positions. This is why the focus is currently on Romania, where the second round will be held soon. By the way, the fact that Russia failed to push a pro-Russian candidate in Moldova is solely due to the elections being held there before those in Romania. If it had been the other way around, Europe would not have been able to hold Moldova — and we would now have two neighboring countries hostile to Ukraine — Hungary and Moldova," notes the political scientist.
He believes that Europe is aware of Russia's plan for the "de-Ukrainization" of the EU: "But the thing is, European elites still do not believe in the possibility of a return to the Cold War times, the terrible leaden 70s and 80s, when prime ministers were assassinated, including Aldo Moro (the former head of the Italian Council of Ministers. — Ed.). Right now, they have had quite a workout with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where the metastases of the anti-Israel lobby were very clearly visible, and this trend will continue. Unfortunately, Europe is not prepared for this. Just as we were unprepared for war," concludes Viktor Nebozhenko.
Was the Voting in Romania Truly a Protest Vote?
Describing the first round as a protest vote, the political scientist stated: "If in our presidential elections in 2019 there was a positive presidential vote because people voted for a positively alternative figure, in Romania there was a negative protest vote. Based on this, I think the final victory of the first round's favorite seems unlikely. However, this story is quite indicative as it clearly demonstrates dissatisfaction with both domestic elites and the European Union's policies. This discontent is currently manifesting in many countries and pertains to agricultural issues, so-called green priorities, and more. Additionally, many people fear the risk of war and therefore respond to seemingly anti-war calls."
The first round of the presidential elections in Romania, according to Vladimir Fesenko, is yet another manifestation of the rise of far-right populist forces in Europe, particularly in its Central and Eastern parts: "We can talk not only about Romania. We see Fico's victory in Slovakia, Orban's dominance in Hungary. What can we say about Romania if far-right candidates are winning in Austria! Therefore, unfortunately, this trend is present. While these forces, except in some countries, are not yet decisive, it should be taken seriously. For example, we emphasize that Georgescu is pro-Russian, but the key issue is that he is anti-Western. And this problem extends far beyond Romania."
To avoid such voting results as those seen in Romania during the first round of presidential elections, the political scientist summarizes, ruling elites must listen more often to the people "they forget almost the day after the elections." "In general, European elites have long needed to contemplate how to address the problem of political populism because the consequences of this issue will be very negative. This destructive populism is a diagnosis that affects not only Romania and its leaders," concludes Vladimir Fesenko.
Speaking specifically about Romania and its leaders, it's worth noting that in this country, the president, elected for a five-year term, has significant powers, particularly in foreign policy and security matters, and represents the country abroad. However, the President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, who will soon complete his second term, despite his recent ambition to become the new NATO Secretary General, has gained a reputation for being completely passive on the global political stage.