Shells are available, but no Patriot systems: what are the main issues with weapon supplies to Ukraine from Europe?

Since the start of the negotiation process regarding Ukraine between representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States, the issue of further military support for Ukraine, but without American involvement, has been increasingly discussed in the information space. With Donald Trump taking office in the White House and steering foreign policy towards ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, the focus has shifted towards Europe. This is evidenced not only by statements from the leaders of European countries, many of whom advocate for continued military assistance to Kyiv, but also by specific practical steps such as the announcements of new arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Statements by Dmytro Kuleba

In light of a potential reduction in military support for Ukraine from the United States, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba outlined two possible scenarios for the European Union. In an interview with the European publication Politico, he emphasized that the EU could either adopt a wait-and-see approach, following the example of the U.S., or take on a greater share of responsibility in supporting Ukraine. At the same time, the former minister expressed doubts about Europe’s ability to compensate for the potential reduction in American aid, estimating that Ukraine has about six months before the lack of weapons begins to be felt at the front lines.

"The most powerful lever of influence over Ukraine that Trump has is the threat of withholding arms supplies. In my opinion, we have about six months before we really start to feel the shortage of weapons at the front line," said the former head of Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Ukraine's Military Potential in 2025 and Ally Support

In the context of Dmytro Kuleba's remarks, we recall the statement by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov regarding Ukraine's military potential in 2025. According to him, this year Ukraine's military budget amounts to 2.22 trillion hryvnias (about 50 billion euros), which is 26% of the country's GDP. International partners also provide significant assistance:

• United Kingdom — 3 billion pounds annually until 2031;
• Denmark — 8.7 billion euros by 2028, of which 2.2 billion euros in 2025;
• European Union — 1.9 billion euros for purchasing ammunition, air defense systems, and supporting the defense industry at the beginning of 2025;
• NATO — up to 500 billion euros within the Comprehensive Assistance Package;
• Netherlands — 4 billion euros for the period 2024–2026;
• Germany — direct military assistance of 4 billion euros;
• Norway — 30 billion Norwegian kroner (2.7 billion dollars);
• USA — 5.5 billion dollars in military aid;
• Sweden: a three-year program for 75 billion Swedish kronor (7.5 billion dollars), or 2.5 billion dollars annually.

Additionally, according to data from the American publication The Wall Street Journal, as of now, Ukraine independently produces or finances the purchase of 55% of all weapons and equipment, Europe provides 25% of supplies, and the United States contributes 20%. Moreover, contracts established during the Biden administration under the USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) will continue to be in effect in 2025-2026. This means that deliveries of certain weapons critically important for Ukraine may continue unless Trump decides to cancel them.

Thus, the Ukrainian defense industry has significantly ramped up production since the start of the war and is currently producing weapons worth about 30 billion dollars annually, which is six times more than in 2023. Among its key achievements is the production of 1.5 million drones. This year, Ukraine plans to produce 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones.

European countries are also increasing military support for Ukraine — in 2024, the volume of assistance reached 25 billion dollars, surpassing American supplies. In 2025, there are discussions about potentially increasing this amount to 30 billion dollars.

Hungary's Foreign Ministry Statement and the March 6 Summit

Considering the figures presented by journalists from The Wall Street Journal, the statement by Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto appears intriguing. During a press conference on the third anniversary of the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, he stated that the European Union is discussing the possibility of providing additional assistance to Ukraine ranging from 20 to 40 billion euros, as well as "an unimaginable amount of weapons."

"Figures ranging from 20 to 40 billion euros are mentioned, which the EU is supposedly supposed to send to Ukraine additionally, along with an unimaginable amount of weapons," the minister stated.

According to him, such an initiative could enable Kyiv to say "no" in the event of unacceptable conditions that might be articulated as a result of negotiations between Russia and the U.S. regarding a peaceful resolution of the situation in Ukraine. At the same time, the head of Hungarian diplomacy clarified that unanimous voting by EU representatives is necessary for allocating such additional assistance, but Hungary does not intend to support this initiative.

"We do not support the idea of new billions of euros being spent by Europeans to prolong the war now, when their hope for peace is stronger than ever. Therefore, we will not agree to anything of the sort, and we will vote against it every time. We will vote against any initiative that threatens the success of current U.S.-Russian negotiations," Szijjarto explained.

In turn, the EU's High Representative, Kaja Kallas, stated at a press conference that an extraordinary European Union summit will take place on March 6 in Brussels, where a new package of military assistance to Ukraine will be discussed. According to her, there is broad support among EU foreign ministers for the new initiative, but final figures will be determined by country leaders at the summit. She emphasized that the EU must strengthen Ukraine's position so that Kyiv can refuse unfavorable agreements.

"Some say we need more time to discuss the details. The problem is that we do not have time. And that is why I insist on March 6… We must put Ukraine in a strong position so that it can say "no" to a bad agreement," the head of EU diplomacy stated.

It is also known that the heads of European foreign ministries reviewed a draft document prepared by the EU External Action Service (EEAS), which proposes expedited arms deliveries to Ukraine in 2025, including:

• 1.5 million artillery shells (152-mm and 155-mm);
• air defense systems;
• long-range missiles;
• drones;
• support for infrastructure recovery.

Initially, it was proposed to allocate 6 billion euros, but the latest version of the document does not specify a concrete amount. Funding will be distributed among the countries proportionally to their GNI (gross national income), and contributions can be made both in cash and through equipment supplies.

Additionally, it is planned to use revenues from frozen Russian assets, from which 880 million euros may be directed to Ukraine in 2024.

Expert Comments

In their comments on the current situation, military analysts highlighted one important point. The fact is that the contribution of the United States to supporting the Ukrainian army is somewhat unique. This includes ammunition produced specifically by the American defense industry, combat vehicles such as Abrams tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, as well as air defense systems like the Patriot missile system.

At the same time, Europeans can provide their combat equipment, gear, and ammunition, particularly for the supplied F-16 fighters.

He noted the words of the head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, who stated that drones hit 85% of targets on the battlefield. Therefore, the Ukrainian army no longer requires a massive amount of ammunition that was previously supplied by the Americans.

"The main issues will be with air defense systems. If the U.S. does not provide them, it will be difficult to replace the missile capabilities of the Patriot. But overall, if financial assistance is increased, Ukraine can partially mitigate the U.S. contribution and their supplies of weapons and military equipment," emphasized Rustamzade.

In turn, aviation expert Anatoly Khrapchynsky pointed out the problems facing the European defense industry in terms of production development.

"In fact, the European defense market is fragmented — there is no unified military complex in Europe like there is in the U.S., and bureaucracy and different standards of armament hinder the rapid deployment of production," the expert believes.

According to him, the European Union was not prepared for a full-scale war and had long been cutting defense budgets. As a result, its defense industry is unable to quickly ramp up the production of shells, missiles, and heavy weaponry.

"An example is the inability to supply Ukraine with the promised million 155-mm shells. Although the EU is starting to rectify the situation (new production lines for shells have been launched), quick results should not be expected," Khrapchynsky added.</