Monday17 February 2025
g-novosti.in.ua

Americans may enter Ukraine, while Putin could back down: how rare earth metals could bring an end to the conflict.

The United States has promised assistance to Ukraine in exchange for rare earth metals. Additionally, Kyiv may receive specific security guarantees and favorable collaboration opportunities. Focus has explored how both Ukraine and the U.S. stand to benefit from this agreement.
Американцы могут вмешаться в Украину, а Путин может отступить: как редкоземельные металлы способны решить исход войны.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he wants Kyiv to provide Washington with rare earth metals in exchange for American aid.

"We are looking to strike a deal with Ukraine, where they will supply what we give them with their rare metals and other things," Trump said.

According to him, these minerals are essential for American manufacturers in the production of smartphones, batteries, lasers, and other modern technology. Additionally, Trump mentioned achieving "significant progress" in the peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine.

"We need to put an end to this senseless war," he emphasized.

Media outlets, citing a source in the President's Office, reported that Ukraine's rare earth metals are part of the "victory plan". In the fourth point, it discusses joint protection with the West, investment, and utilization of valuable natural resources such as uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and others.

According to the source, it is crucial that these rare earth metals are not acquired by the Russian Federation, which is why President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed "special protection" for these resources. Moreover, it was suggested that they should be specifically used in collaboration with key partners, but first, security guarantees for these resources are needed. Zelensky discussed this matter during a meeting with Trump in September 2024.

Rare Earth Metals: Why They Matter to Trump and What Ukraine Will Gain

"Most likely, he means that it would be sensible to grant American companies access to the exploration and extraction of these natural resources under security guarantees from the U.S. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to independently implement such projects due to a lack of necessary technologies. In exchange for this access, investments, and cooperation, military support from the U.S. will continue, and additional security guarantees may be provided," says Hetman.

He is convinced that the arrival of Americans in Ukraine for the extraction of rare earth metals is the best thing that could happen right now. When many Americans are present on Ukrainian soil, the enemy is likely to behave less aggressively and more cautiously.

"These are security pacts with other countries, for example, regarding arms supplies, financial support, and backing for the Ukrainian defense industry, among other things. As another option, I think we will eventually discuss the formation of a separate security alliance. If Russia is against Ukraine joining NATO, but Ukraine still needs to guarantee its future security, then perhaps this will lead to the formation of a separate security alliance or a collective security agreement involving European countries, where Ukraine receives collective security guarantees," says Posternak.

Additionally, a guarantee of security could be the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent along the border and the line of conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

According to the political analyst, it is preferable for rare earth metals to be controlled by American investors rather than by Russian occupiers.

Political analyst Viktor Taran noted that the U.S., in the context of global opposition to China, is seeking sources of supply for critically important rare earth metals. These will be used in high-tech and military sectors.

"Rare earth elements (particularly neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium, scandium, and other lanthanides) are indispensable in the production of powerful permanent magnets used in modern combat systems. Missiles, aircraft engines, air defense systems, and high-tech devices (such as smartphones, electric cars, solar panels, computer components)," Taran reported.

He stated that Ukraine possesses a significant amount of such metals. While China controls up to 70% of global extraction and up to 90% of processing of rare earth elements, the country holds a powerful lever of influence in trade and geopolitical relations. The U.S. is competing with China and seeks to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies by developing alternative sources and entering into agreements with countries that have substantial reserves of rare earth materials.

Thanks to Ukrainian metals, the U.S. will be able to:

  • reduce dependence on Chinese supplies;
  • ensure production of defense products and high-tech goods;
  • strengthen the geopolitical position of the U.S. and its allies in competition with China.

Meanwhile, Ukraine will gain:

  • American bases, investors, and revenue for the budget;
  • employment for veterans, who will gladly protect foreign capital here;
  • American military presence, which will provide real security guarantees.

"The U.S., which is interested in Ukrainian rare earth metals due to their critical importance for the defense and high-tech industries, will mobilize all resources to ensure peace in Ukraine. They will provide security guarantees but will demand their price in return. In their view, this is a fair agreement. They give us security, and in return, they acquire resources to counter China, which dominates the global market for these materials. Under such circumstances, Ukraine becomes a strategic partner supplying neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium, and other lanthanides to the U.S.," he explained, adding that Ukraine becomes an important link in the ecosystem and geopolitical shield for the U.S.

Reserves of Rare Earth Metals: What Ukraine Has to Offer

Hetman noted that the reserves of rare earth metals are quite substantial. In particular, lithium and titanium deposits represent 20–50 years of extraction. Moreover, these metals could later return to Ukraine in another form, such as Tesla cars.

Ukraine lacks the technology to extract and process rare earth metals. However, the country occupies leading niches in other sectors, specifically agriculture and metal processing.

"Every country focuses on what it has the greatest advantage in. The U.S. is engaged in innovations, so the metals extracted in Ukraine will return to us in the form of finished products that we currently cannot produce ourselves. The 20–40 year period during which these resources will be extracted and utilized presents a good opportunity for Ukraine: it will allow for earnings, obtaining security guarantees, hastening the end of the war, and then transitioning to other types of resources or technologies," concluded the economist.

Карта полезных ископаемых в Украине

Posternak pointed out that Ukraine has large reserves of lithium, uranium, titanium, etc., with about 20 thousand deposits, of which 70% are located in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

"Transferring or granting a concession for the extraction of these minerals to American companies could make U.S. interests in Ukraine more pragmatic. This provides Washington not only with economic advantages but also the opportunity to protect its strategic interests in the event of a new attack on Ukraine. In return, Ukraine gains a reliable investor, job creation for Ukrainians, stable tax revenues for the state budget, and overall economic benefits. This cooperation can be advantageous for both sides," emphasized Posternak.

Rare earth metals, according to the expert, are used in electronics, defense industry, and machine engineering. This sector of the economy has begun to outpace traditional industries in the last decade, which is why it is currently receiving so much attention.

Taran noted that a significant portion of the world's rare earth metals, according to geological studies, is located in the Ukrainian Shield. There are promising deposits, particularly in the southwestern and southern regions.

"Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Kherson regions are a bonanza, where unique or large-scale ore occurrences of such elements have been identified," he emphasized.

It should be noted that on February 4, media reported that German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned U.S. President Donald Trump's position on acquiring Ukrainian rare earth metals. According to him, it is selfish to use a country's resources to finance defense support.

At the end of January, it became known that China dominates the global market for rare earth metals essential for modern electronics production. Additionally, these elements are also found in Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, India, Australia, the U.S., and Greenland.