Analysts from the currency exchange market operator "KIT Group," alongside colleagues from "Globus Bank" and "Unex Bank" (both based in Kyiv), agree that the average annual exchange rate in 2025 will be close to 45 UAH/$1, which aligns with the figure included in the state budget for the upcoming year.
"The most likely scenario is one that closely resembles the government forecast reflected in the state budget for 2025, with an average annual rate of 45 UAH/$1, allowing for fluctuations throughout the year within the range of 44-46 UAH/$1, leaning towards the higher end by the year's end - we currently have no grounds to underestimate the risks of further long-term devaluation," representatives from "KIT Group" stated in response to an inquiry from the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
Experts anticipate a weakening of the official exchange rate to 42.2-42.5 UAH/$1 by the end of the current year. They indicate that the forecast for early 2025 will depend on macroeconomic factors, particularly the ongoing dynamics of international support, the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and exchange rate parity in international markets for the U.S. dollar and euro.
"If there is stable financial support from partners and allies, and provided there is low volatility in external markets, the exchange rate of the hryvnia will be relatively predictable, although it will remain in a devaluation trend," analysts emphasize.
In turn, the chairman of "Globus Bank," Sergey Mamedov, notes that in his forecasts for the official exchange rate for the next year, he also predominantly relies on the budgeted figure of 45 UAH/$1.
"We understand that the dollar's value may depend on a number of factors and circumstances, among which the volume of international financial support aimed at covering the budget 'gap' between expenses and income is notable," he explains.
Among the important factors influencing exchange rate dynamics, the banker mentioned GDP growth rates, inflation levels, and military actions that could exert pressure on the currency market, prompting more active purchases of foreign currency in both cash and non-cash markets.
"We cannot rule out that the forecast may not fully materialize. However, the weighted average exchange rate of 45 UAH/$1 is already a benchmark upon which businesses rely when planning their activities for 2025, particularly housing developers who have started their projects in the second half of 2024 with planned completion in 2026," Mamedov cited as an example.
According to calculations by "Globus Bank," the hryvnia may weaken to the level of 46-47 UAH/$1 by the end of 2025.
"From today's perspective, the figures included in the budget appear quite realistic, and by the end of next year, if there are no significant changes in the security situation, an exchange range of 45-47 UAH/$1 is highly probable," commented Anna Zolotko, director of the treasury operations department at Unex Bank, to Interfax-Ukraine.
"However, I would not rush to make any forecasts. The probability that the war will end in 2025 is not zero. And if reliable security guarantees are obtained, the situation in the economy will change rapidly, including regarding the exchange rate of the hryvnia," the banker added.
According to her, in the event of a positive scenario—ending military actions—one should expect an influx of foreign investments. In this regard, Zolotko does not exclude that at a certain point, the regulator may have to buy currency instead of selling it on the interbank market.
"It is clear that such a scenario seems somewhat fantastic right now, but it cannot be ruled out," Zolotko concluded.
Analysts from "KIT Group" explain that the record surge in demand for foreign currency at the end of the current year is due to the traditional activation of business settlements under external contracts and the increased demand for cash currency among the population.
"However, throughout the year, we observed predominantly minor spreads between buying and selling rates—this is a clear indication of balance in the market. Whereas in December, the spread between the buying and selling rates of the dollar reached 0.8-1 UAH, indicating increased pressure on the market," the experts commented on the situation.
However, due to the influx of record volumes of cash currency and currency interventions by the National Bank, the exchange rate of the hryvnia has been maintained in relative stability, they indicate.
"For the next year, an important factor will be the increase in tax burdens on deposits. If banks cannot mitigate the decline in deposit yields with attractive offers, there is a high likelihood of a shift in savings and free hryvnia liquidity into cash currency outside of banks, which could also become a significant pressure factor on the exchange rate," the experts explain.
Mamedov notes that cash exchange rates for the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar in 2025 are likely to differ from interbank rates by a range of 0.3-0.5 UAH. Thus, if the interbank rate at the end of the year is around 46-47 UAH/$1, then on the cash market, it may average 46.5-47.5 UAH/$1.
"However, at this moment, it is extremely difficult to linearly predict the situation without considering a range of dynamically developing or possible factors," the banker stated.
In turn, Zolotko identified the key factors for the record volumes of cash currency imports as increased demand from the population against the backdrop of devaluation expectations, considering the restrictions on purchasing non-cash currency equivalent to 50,000 UAH/month at one bank, as well as a significant improvement in the channels for delivering cash currency overland to Ukraine.
"There is no problem with the numbers themselves. The NBU currently has sufficient reserves, and projected inflows of international aid, at least for the next year, look convincing, so there are enough resources to cover this excess currency demand. At the same time, it should not be forgotten that we are primarily talking about the formation of savings, that is, some 'private' currency reserves," the banker emphasized.
As reported, last year the official exchange rate of the hryvnia devalued by 4.5% to 37.9824 UAH/$1, while the government included an average annual figure of 42.2 UAH/$1 in the budget for 2023, and by the end of the year—45.8 UAH/$1.
For the current year, the hryvnia has fallen by 10.6% to 42.0390 UAH/$1 as of December 31, while the Cabinet laid out an average annual figure of 40.7 UAH/$1 in the state budget, and by the end of the year—42.1 UAH/$1.