Dollar Demand Soars: Discover the reasons behind record currency demand and what the exchange rate is expected to be in 2025.

During the week of December 23-27, the National Bank sold $1.625 billion, as indicated by statistics on the NBU's website. In fact, the regulator increased currency sales by 14.7%. Since the beginning of 2024, the total volume of currency sold by the NBU has reached $34.57 billion. Meanwhile, the official exchange rate on December 30 is 41.94 UAH per dollar. In exchange offices, the average selling rate of the dollar in Ukraine has already risen to 42.4 UAH per dollar.

According to him, the regulator is restraining any aggressive, panic-driven, volatile movements against the national currency and is selling more than usual to convey that the situation is under control. "Of course, this is also thanks to loans and grants from partners, which helps to support the national currency and ensure an excess demand in the market," the expert added.

Speaking about future exchange rate fluctuations, experts expect further devaluation of the hryvnia in January-February 2025 and throughout the following year.

"The situation with the exchange rate remains unchanged as long as the war continues in the country, so we anticipate a controlled devaluation of up to 10% per year; therefore, the exchange rate set in the budget may be justified and reach the levels stated by the Ministry of Finance. In 2025, we expect both seasonal factors affecting the exchange rate and excess demand for military purchases, energy, and everything necessary for the country's survival during wartime, which will pressure the national currency," says Anton Kurinny.

In Anna Zolotko's opinion, at the beginning of the year, there could be increased pressure on the hryvnia from the population. At the same time, business activity tends to weaken during this period, leading to a slight decrease in currency demand. "I believe that the inauguration of Trump and certain steps he may take towards peace in Ukraine could also influence exchange rate trends. Overall, the National Bank will limit the devaluation of the hryvnia. Against the backdrop of accelerating inflation, this is a crucial factor for restoring price stability. Therefore, in my opinion, the hryvnia will remain relatively stable throughout January," predicts Anna Zolotko.