Monday04 November 2024
g-novosti.in.ua

Germany halts heavy equipment supplies to Ukraine: What is Olaf Scholz afraid of?

The German ruling elites are skeptical about Ukraine's military successes and are increasingly leaning towards restoring ties with Russia. The delivery of 18 Leopard 2 tanks may be the last, despite the Bundeswehr having around 300 of these vehicles. Focus has learned about the potential dangers of this shift.
Германия останавливает поставки тяжелой техники в Украину: что вызывает опасения у Олафа Шольца?

Germany, a key military ally of Ukraine and the primary provider of assistance from the European Union, is shifting its rhetoric. The Bundeswehr is delaying the delivery of heavy equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to doubts about the success of the counteroffensive aimed at reclaiming territories, reported sources from the German tabloid Bild.

Germany ranks second after the United States in the volume of military aid provided to Ukraine. In 2024 alone, Berlin allocated $7.7 billion to Kyiv, including important air defense systems and artillery, as acknowledged by the Pentagon.

According to information from Bild, during the recent meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on October 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced a number of unattainable demands: permission to strike targets in Russia with Taurus air-to-ground missiles and to expedite Ukraine's NATO membership process.

The Ukrainian leader's demands were met with a lack of enthusiasm from the German side. Scholz did not outright reject the requests, but he also did not provide a positive response. Sources also mentioned the German Ministry of Defense's disbelief in Ukraine's victory. The Bundeswehr does not plan to supply tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers, and other equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

After sending 18 Leopard 2 tanks, no further deliveries are anticipated, despite the Bundeswehr having around 300 such tanks. At the same time, Germany is not abandoning the provision of 100,000 artillery shells in 2025. The total financial assistance to Kyiv will amount to 8 billion euros in 2024 and 4 billion euros in 2025.

The authors note that despite the statements of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius about supporting Ukraine, internal reports indicate the depletion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia continues to advance, despite its losses, raising concerns in Berlin.

Nevertheless, Germany, along with Belgium, Denmark, and Norway, is preparing a military assistance package for Ukraine worth 1.4 billion euros by the end of 2024. This package will include IRIS-T and Skynex air defense systems, Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, tracked and wheeled howitzers, tanks, armored vehicles, drones, radars, and artillery shells.

Is Germany "tired" of supporting Ukraine?

German media point out the "fatigue" of the West regarding Ukraine's struggle against Russian aggression. One reason is the escalation in the Middle East, the consequences of which may require additional assistance from the West.

"Ukraine is not the number one topic in foreign policy and security policy. Authorities from Berlin to Washington are reacting to the changing domestic political sentiments in their countries, although key figures understand how futile the hope for peaceful negotiations with Russia is," notes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Ukrainian international relations experts cautiously assess the information about the suspension of German aid. The suspension of heavy equipment deliveries may be related to its stocks and production capabilities, believes co-director of foreign policy programs, coordinator of international projects at the Razumkov Center, Oleksiy Melnyk.

Statements regarding the transfer of weapons, according to the expert, are informational in nature, and one cannot exclude the scenario of covert equipment transfers. The only thing that should not be expected from Germany is the transfer of Taurus missiles, the analyst asserts.

Other military conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and the escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, also require resources. The West should consider the problem of the "axis of evil" and the creation of various points of tension in a comprehensive manner. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the possibility of supplying weapons to forces opposing Western countries. The primary candidates include Iran, North Korea, the Houthis in Yemen, Lebanese Hezbollah, Venezuela, Cuba, and other allies.

"Discussions about a third world war are ongoing. It is surprising that the leaders of major countries still do not understand that it is already underway. Russia and its allies want the West to be unable to 'put out fires' around the world," adds the expert.

Zelensky is being pressured into peace

It is not surprising to see a change in sentiment in Germany regarding the continuation of the war in Ukraine. Berlin, under pressure from the United States, had been sending aid to Kyiv, points out director of the Sociological Research Center "Ukrainian Barometer," political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko.

In his opinion, the operation to discredit Ukraine was conducted by the German Attorney General's office. By issuing an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian citizen suspected of sabotaging the "Nord Streams," diving instructor Volodymyr Z., a negative attitude towards Ukrainians was formed among Germans.

Nebozhenko reported on Scholz's uncertainty ahead of the presidential elections in the United States. The Chancellor needs room for maneuver, while Ukraine urgently requires German heavy weapons.

"We are witnessing the result of successful pressure from Putin on Germany. There is no factor to compel them to support Ukrainian forces. But if these trends continue, the question of NATO's strength in principle will arise," notes the expert.

Olaf Scholz is a member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany, which faces serious competition from the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party, advocating for a reduction in aid to Kyiv and the restoration of ties with Russia.

The popularity of right-wing radicals is increasing: in Saxony and Thuringia, federal states in eastern Germany, on September 1, 2024, the AfD received over 30% of the votes in the state parliamentary elections. Right-wing sentiments are gradually dominating in Germany, which Scholz cannot ignore, according to Yali.

Germany is also sending a personal signal to Zelensky: if the second most military powerful ally stops supplying arms, Ukraine will be forced to negotiate with the Russian Federation. Thus, the Ukrainian leader is being pressured into peace, concluded the expert.

It is worth noting that companies from Germany are supplying Russia with equipment for military production, despite sanctions. In 2023 alone, the Russian Federation received over 300 machines for producing parts for vehicles or ammunition.

Furthermore, the meeting in the "Ramstein" format, scheduled for October 12 in Germany, has been postponed. U.S. President Joe Biden canceled his visit to Germany due to the anticipation of a powerful hurricane named "Milton."