Trump's Peace Plan: Why He Appointed General Keith Kellogg as the Lead on Ukraine.

The elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced via social media the name of his future special representative for matters concerning the Russia-Ukraine war. The appointee is 80-year-old retired Lieutenant General and Vietnam War veteran Keith Kellogg, who served as a national security advisor to the Vice President during Trump's first term. "Keith has had an outstanding career in both military and business sectors, notably holding very sensitive positions in national security in my first administration. He has been with me from the very beginning. Together with Kellogg, we will ensure peace through strength and make the world safe again," emphasized Trump.

Why Trump's choice could be worse for Ukraine

It is worth noting that in June of this year, Keith Kellogg, along with former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz, who also worked in the National Security Council under Donald Trump, presented a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The document suggested initiating peace talks without requiring Kyiv to recognize the territories occupied by Moscow. Additionally, the authors proposed using support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces as leverage to pressure both countries into negotiations. In other words, according to this plan, Trump could halt military aid to Ukraine if it refuses peace talks, while Russia would be warned that any refusal to negotiate would lead to increased support for Kyiv. The peace talks themselves are expected to result in a de facto freeze along the contact line.

Moreover, Kellogg also called on the Biden administration back in September 2022 to provide Ukraine with all necessary weapons to inflict a military defeat on the Russian army. During the presentation of their plan in the summer, Kellogg and Fleitz asserted in unison that Trump received their ideas "very positively." It is also worth mentioning that just a few days ago, Reuters reported that Richard Grenell is being considered as a candidate, who during Trump's presidency served not only as the Director of National Intelligence but also as the U.S. Ambassador to Germany and as the President's special representative for peace talks between Serbia and Kosovo. Richard Grenell is described by Reuters' sources as "an extremely experienced diplomat," but they added that the Ukrainian authorities are unlikely to accept his proposals, as he has advocated for creating "some autonomous zones" as part of a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, and has also opposed Ukraine's accession to NATO.

It is important to remember that during his first presidential term (from 2017 to 2021), Trump's team already had a special representative for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, who consistently discussed the implementation of the Minsk agreements with Ukraine and Russia. He resigned in 2019, and under the current U.S. President Joe Biden, there has been no dedicated special envoy for this issue.

What Kellogg will do to build a pro-Trump network in Ukraine

Speculating on the situation, the expert suggested that after his appointment, Keith Kellogg will develop a small network of Trump allies among deputies and officials to gather information from them and relay it not just to the White House, but directly to Trump.

"I believe Mr. Kellogg will focus on creating a pro-Trump friendly faction in Ukraine. However, even the mere fact that such a special representative will exist is undoubtedly positive, as it will provide us with a direct and immediate communication channel. Additionally, this appointment clearly demonstrates that this direction is genuinely important to Trump," summarizes Maxim Neshvitalov.

Is Trump really not changing his management style?

Noting that Trump's previous statements regarding the Russia-Ukraine war since he entered the White House do not always align with his campaign rhetoric, the political scientist remarked: "Trump can no longer come out and say: 'Yes, I have decided to continue providing military assistance to Ukraine.' Trump will communicate such decisions through the appropriate officials, focusing on American interests. For instance, he might approve support for Ukraine in the form of loans that, as an option, could be paid for by Europeans. And, by the way, some European countries may well be interested in such a case."

Furthermore, Oleg Posternak concludes, the special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war will work on shaping the "basic principles of Trump's peace initiative," which will be clearly articulated following direct contact between Trump and Zelensky on one side, and Putin on the other.

What ideas will Keith Kellogg implement as the special envoy for the war?

The expert believes that Trump's special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war will focus on "packaging" the U.S. position in a way that it does not meet significant resistance from either side.

Maxim Djigun thinks that Trump himself would not mind traveling to present his conditions to Kyiv and Moscow, but considering that the challenges facing the U.S. president exceed the hours in a day, he has to choose people who will bring his ideas to life in various areas.

Pointing out that freezing the conflict does not equate to ending the war, the political scientist added that during Trump's term, his special envoy will keep a close watch and in case of potential escalations "or other unforeseen circumstances," will inform the White House "with utmost urgency."

At the same time, the political scientist emphasizes that regardless of the special envoy's name, communication regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine war must occur at the highest state level, and the resolution of this issue will ultimately rest with the presidents of Ukraine, the U.S., "and, obviously, the Russian dictator Putin."