According to the regulator's estimates, the real growth of the gross domestic product in 2024 is expected to reach 3.4%, which is lower than what was projected by the bank.
This is attributed to poor harvests, economic risks arising from the military actions during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and a shortage of electricity due to infrastructure shelling. The ongoing war hinders the return of refugees, which maintains a high labor shortage, said Pyshny.
"Given the security risks and the challenging situation in the labor market, the NBU has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%. At the same time, the NBU's baseline scenario still envisions a gradual return of the economy to normal functioning conditions," he noted.
In 2026-2027, the National Bank expects a "moderate acceleration" of economic growth to 4% driven by investments in energy and manufacturing capacities, a soft fiscal policy, and an increase in private consumption amid rising household incomes.
Today, the National Bank raised the discount rate from 13.5% to 14.5%. According to its data, inflation in December 2024, contrary to forecasts, accelerated to 12%, and the depreciation of the hryvnia continued into January 2025. The regulator anticipates that inflation will peak in late spring to early summer.