Wednesday19 February 2025
g-novosti.in.ua

The National Bank has revised its economic growth forecast for Ukraine, now predicting a decline until 2027.

The National Bank of Ukraine reports a slowdown in the country's economic recovery and anticipates that this trend will continue. The head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshny, made this announcement during a briefing broadcast on YouTube on January 23.
Нацбанк снизил прогноз экономического роста Украины до 2027 года.

According to the regulator's estimates, the real growth of the gross domestic product in 2024 is expected to reach 3.4%, which is lower than what was projected by the bank.

This is attributed to poor harvests, economic risks arising from the military actions during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and a shortage of electricity due to infrastructure shelling. The ongoing war hinders the return of refugees, which maintains a high labor shortage, said Pyshny.

"Given the security risks and the challenging situation in the labor market, the NBU has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%. At the same time, the NBU's baseline scenario still envisions a gradual return of the economy to normal functioning conditions," he noted.

In 2026-2027, the National Bank expects a "moderate acceleration" of economic growth to 4% driven by investments in energy and manufacturing capacities, a soft fiscal policy, and an increase in private consumption amid rising household incomes.

Today, the National Bank raised the discount rate from 13.5% to 14.5%. According to its data, inflation in December 2024, contrary to forecasts, accelerated to 12%, and the depreciation of the hryvnia continued into January 2025. The regulator anticipates that inflation will peak in late spring to early summer.