Monday11 November 2024
g-novosti.in.ua

"Shift the war to the Dnipro": Why does Russia maintain up to 200,000 troops in southern Ukraine?

The capture of Ugledar enables Russia to establish and supply military reserves in Crimea, as well as in the occupied territories of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. However, Moscow is currently bogged down by issues in the Kursk region and Donbass. Focus explored whether the opening of a southern front is on the horizon.
"Почему Россия сохраняет до 200 тысяч войск на юге Украины? Цель - перенести конфликт за Днепр."

The Russian army has amassed a significant force in southern Ukraine. Almost 200,000 soldiers are being deployed in accordance with increased efforts and defense maintenance. In several areas, the invaders are forming small groups of up to 10 individuals for assaults, but the establishment of large offensive formations has not yet been observed, stated Vladislav Voloshin, a representative of the Southern Defense Forces, on October 30.

Additionally, the enemy is gathering armored vehicles to support assault groups. The Russian Armed Forces have not demonstrated substantial advances in the south, but a few days ago they "infiltrated" a short distance into the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the village of Levadne on the Vremivka bulge. Meanwhile, the DeepState analytical team reported on October 27 that Levadne had been occupied.

According to Voloshin, the Russians are intensifying their attacks towards the Zaporizhzhia region following the capture of Ugledar. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to stabilize the situation in the region.

Given the number of concentrated troops, Russia may be preparing for an offensive not only in the Donbas but also in the Zaporizhzhia direction. This preparation process includes the transportation of additional personnel to training grounds, warned the advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, Petr Andryushchenko.

Attempts to attack in the area of Bolshaya Novoselka are already a precursor to an offensive, and it should not be expected to begin necessarily at Robotino. The Russians are blocking the route from Berdyansk to Tokmak under the cover of moving construction equipment. However, in reality, soldiers will be transported from training grounds to the front line using this route, the advisor to the mayor points out.

Russian media also writes about an increase in bombings in the Orikhiv direction in the Zaporizhzhia region. The use of heavy aviation bombs FAB-500 can often be observed.

According to co-founder of the DeepState analytical project Roman Pogorely, it is difficult to track the actual number of Russian troops in southern Ukraine. It is known that in the area of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, the grouping of the Russian Armed Forces numbers up to 70,000 soldiers, while near Kupiansk, it is around 40,000.

ВС РФ стали активнее атаковать в сторону Запорожской области после захвата Угледара

In the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, the DeepState team does not see significant activation of enemy reserves. In the area of Robotino, assaults are occurring almost constantly.

Lost Ugledar: why is Russia freely amassing forces in the south?

The reason why Russians are freely accumulating troops in southern Ukraine lies in the loss of Ugledar. The Ukrainian Armed Forces can no longer hit the railways in the southern Donetsk region with artillery, including around Volnovakha. It is currently too early to speak of a large-scale attack in the Zaporizhzhia region, as the main objective of the Russian Armed Forces' autumn campaign has been the advance in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.

"Ahead of Moscow is the issue with the Kursk bridgehead and the Donbas. There may be parallel processes on other fronts, but will there be enough resources? Active fighting is currently taking place in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction to threaten Kramatorsk and Sloviansk," added Seleznev.

"Thousands of Cuts" near Zaporizhzhia: what to prepare for

It cannot be ruled out that in the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russians will apply the "thousands of cuts" tactic — sharply intensifying combat operations to divert the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Donbas, speculates military expert Dmitry Snegirev.

"The Donetsk front has indeed become the primary direction for Russian Armed Forces strikes. It is hot in the Kupiansk direction, where an assault group is being formed for flanking maneuvers from the south. In the area of Robotino and Mala Tokmachka, the Russian Aerospace Forces are working intensively. The task of the southern front is to demonstrate the possibility of shifting the theater of operations across the Dnieper," the expert explains.

According to Snegirev, weather conditions will reduce the intensity of drone attacks, which will simultaneously impair the defensive capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, the activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces will also decline.

Officials, in turn, promise to soon build a third line of fortifications in the Zaporizhzhia region. According to the words of the head of the Zaporizhzhia OVA, Ivan Fedorov, the region needs to be transformed into a fortress.

"The first task assigned by the military was completed in mid-summer. For now, we continue to jointly build the second and third lines and fortifications," he said.

Fedorov emphasized that the fortifications are constantly being modernized, and if previously their basis was to provide shelter from KAB and artillery, now they are considering protection against drones.

Recall that Ivan Fedorov urges residents of the Zaporizhzhia region to prepare for complete blackouts this winter. The head of the OVA advises people to expect that there will be no electricity at all.