Biden's approval to strike Russia with ATACMS is a slap in the face to Trump, shattering the new president's "peaceful plans."

At the end of his term, U.S. President Joe Biden has taken a sharp escalation in the Russian-Ukrainian war: for the first time, he allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike with long-range ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. This move fulfills months of Ukraine's requests that the White House had previously ignored due to fears of escalation.

A significant shift in U.S. policy occurred two months before the inauguration of newly elected President Donald Trump, who has promised to reduce support for Ukraine. The first reports of Biden's decision came from sources at The New York Times and The Washington Post (WP). According to their information, the primary targets will be Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region.

One senior official told WP that Biden aims to deter North Korea from transferring new military forces to Russia. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un must understand that this would be a costly mistake.

Sources from Reuters believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will strike Russia with ATACMS missiles within the coming days. Initially, the missiles with a maximum range of up to 305 kilometers will be deployed. The specific types of missiles that Biden has permitted Ukraine to use have not been clarified.

An informed source speaking to Axios confirmed the authorization for missile use in the Kursk region, where North Korean troops are stationed. Biden's decision was communicated to Ukrainian authorities about three days ago.

The White House, the Pentagon, and the Ukrainian side have declined to comment on these reports to Western media. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not confirmed receiving permission from Washington but emphasized that "the missiles will speak for themselves."

American officials hope that if North Korean forces in Kursk are attacked, Pyongyang will reconsider its decision to send troops to Russia. This would lead to a failure of the Russian counter-offensive in Kursk.

Ukraine Allowed to Strike Russia with ATACMS Missiles: What Will Change?

The Biden administration is eager to assist Ukraine in retaining a small piece of Russian territory to provide it with a strong bargaining chip in future peace negotiations. Military analysts believe that the permission for ATACMS strikes will not change the course of the war but will aid the Ukrainian Armed Forces in defense. The U.S. simply will not supply Ukraine with enough missiles to turn the tide of the confrontation, argues Executive Director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, Dmitry Zhmaylo.

The U.S. is Ukraine's most crucial ally when it comes to long-range weaponry. Only the United States can quantitatively and qualitatively meet the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as it is the only country with the necessary stockpiles and range of missiles.

Washington's decision may encourage other allies of Ukraine to provide long-range weapons. Germany, however, is still hesitant to supply Taurus cruise missiles, fearing involvement in a war with Russia. Although Taurus has greater accuracy and range compared to the British Storm Shadow missile, which would enhance the effectiveness of strikes on legitimate targets.

Russia will undoubtedly resume nuclear threats and intensify strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. The Russian Armed Forces have vast missile stocks for massive strikes, especially of the X and "Iskander" series. Threats to attack nuclear power plants and other critical infrastructure remain, notes the expert.

Is Biden Sabotaging Trump's "Negotiation Table"?

In September 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that the shift to Western long-range missiles "changes the very essence and nature of the conflict." NATO will be directly involved in the war with Russia. Only the military alliance can "input flight missions into missile systems."

"Before ATACMS, we had similar decisions regarding the transfer of various weapon systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which raised concerns about the risk of escalation. I think the U.S. has no other option to assist in countering the threats now. While the U.S. is currently only discussing targets in the Kursk region, not stopping the enemy in Donbas, we will see how the situation evolves on the battlefield," he reflects.

⁠However, the analyst does not see contradictions between Donald Trump's peace plan and Joe Biden's adventurous decision. Peace negotiations are only possible when Russia understands the impossibility of an offensive, and for that, Ukraine's military capabilities need to be strengthened.

"To bring the conflicting parties to the negotiation table, Russia must be deprived of the ability to shift the front. Otherwise, Moscow has no reason to seek peace," asserts Beleskov.

Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on November 18 that the proposed media-frozen front line would not satisfy the Kremlin as a condition for starting peace talks.

Russia will insist on the conditions outlined by Putin: the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of four partially occupied regions and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO.

"To push Moscow to the conclusion that dialogue is necessary, we need to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities so that it stabilizes the line of confrontation. Therefore, there is no conflict between Trump's plan and Biden's intentions to transfer ATACMS missiles," the expert summarized.

It should be noted that Western media previously reported on Joe Biden's possible attempt to change the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office as the new president. Minor changes on the front in favor of Ukraine could hinder the Republican's attempts to force Kyiv to accept Kremlin conditions.