Russian troops advance into Kupiansk. Have the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to correct their defensive mistakes in the city?

On November 13, Russian forces broke through into Kupiansk, a vital transport and logistics hub in the Kharkiv region. Two columns of military equipment advanced from the Liman Pershyi area towards the highway to Svatove. The first column consisted of two light multi-purpose transporters (MT-LB), an infantry fighting vehicle (BMP), and a tank. The exact composition of the second column remains unknown, reports the DeepState analyst team.

The breakthrough was halted by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, comprising the 116th and 14th separate mechanized brigades (OMB) and adjacent units. One MT-LB was hit in the forest, and another was struck on Nekrasova Street. From the second vehicle, around fifteen Russian soldiers fled, all of whom began to run away. The tank was also destroyed on the same street, and part of the fleeing airborne unit was eliminated.

Additionally, some Russian soldiers were dressed in uniforms resembling those of the Ukrainian army, violating international laws and rules of warfare.

According to Russian military correspondents, the breakthrough into Kupiansk involved fighters from the 6th Combined Arms Army of Russia. Its units "unexpectedly for the Armed Forces of Ukraine" broke into the eastern part of Kupiansk on the left bank of the Oskil River. The first units surged in on armored vehicles, and the airborne troops are currently holding the defense, but Ukrainian military officials dispute these claims. Andriy Besedin, head of the Kupiansk city military administration, states that Russian paratroopers have already been eliminated.

The top military command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not mention the breakthrough of the occupiers in Kupiansk. The Russians are attempting to penetrate the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kupiansk direction, actively operating in small groups with the support of armored vehicles, reported the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In total, there were 12 combat engagements in the Kupiansk direction. The Defense Forces repelled attacks by the Russian Armed Forces in the areas of Lozova, Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Kolesnykivka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, and Pervomaiske. On November 13, enemy assault groups attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in four waves, deploying up to 15 units of equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, and the UR-77 mine-clearing system.

Why did the Defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kupiansk fail, and what will happen next?

The threat of encirclement around Kupiansk exists, with military expert from the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Ivan Stupak estimating its probability at over 50%. The Russian Armed Forces are eager to reclaim the city, which was liberated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the counteroffensive in September 2022. Kupiansk was under Russian control from February 27 to September 10, 2022.

The Russian Armed Forces approached the Oskil south of Kupiansk several weeks ago, but could not get close to the city due to the dense defenses provided by several brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The initial breakthrough indicates a weak point in the Ukrainian defense, the analyst believes.

For the domestic audience in Russia, the breakthrough in Kupiansk will be presented from a media perspective, which is why the occupiers were dressed in Ukrainian Armed Forces uniforms.

"The picture will look like this: look, Ukrainians are shooting at Ukrainians, while the military is against the continuation of the war. The propaganda will find the necessary informational context," Stupak added.

A Ukrainian Armed Forces lieutenant with the call sign "Alex" believes that some Ukrainian military leaders will be punished for the mistake in Kupiansk.

"Somehow, the bastards managed to break into the city itself. In recent months, because of such failures, some units start to bear the brunt along the front… The problem is that some units are repelling unrealistic assaults with over 20 units of armored vehicles, while others are just poking around in one spot. This is not a criticism of the ordinary fighters. The question is for those responsible for the combat readiness of such units," he emphasized.

Gathering another group for an attack will not be difficult, but the Ukrainian military has already noticed the enemy's intentions and acknowledges that the mistake was quickly rectified. The reinforcement group dispatched to assist the occupiers on November 13 did not reach Kupiansk, the expert notes after speaking with military personnel on the ground.

"By occupying the village of Synkivka, essentially the key to Kupiansk, the Russians are asking themselves how quickly they can start fighting in the suburbs. The railway connection, and in Kharkiv region this is an important station Kupiansk-Uzlovyi, remains crucial for the uninterrupted supply of the occupation contingent. The battles for Kupiansk will continue, and on November 13 we received signals about this," the expert speculates.

The localized offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the eastern part of the Kharkiv region has also become possible because the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to transfer some troops to defend the Donetsk region amid a shortage of manpower, summarized Seleznev.

As a reminder, as of November 14, Russian troops captured the village of Ilyinka in the Pokrovsk district of the Donetsk region. The enemy has made gains in the localities of Dalneye, near Novodonetske and Trudove.