Monday04 November 2024
g-novosti.in.ua

Ukrainian resources and troops in exchange for assistance: what Zelensky offered the West in his "victory plan."

The long-secret winning initiative is challenging to implement. Partners are hesitant to invite Ukraine to join NATO amidst the ongoing war and allow strikes on Russia. In discussions with Focus, political analysts describe Vladimir Zelensky's plan as a "collection of wishes" and express skepticism about its approval due to concerns over escalation in the West.
Зеленский предложил Западу "план победы", в котором ресурсы и солдаты ВСУ обменяются на поддержку.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Verkhovna Rada on October 16 and unveiled a "victory plan" that had been kept under wraps for quite some time. Before presenting it to the public in Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden, followed by the leaders of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, were first briefed on it.

The "victory plan" includes familiar demands from the West: inviting Ukraine to NATO "today," allowing strikes on Russia with long-range missiles, and bolstering the defense industry in various ways. New elements involve the deployment of strategic non-nuclear forces in Ukraine to deter Russia, along with a call for allies to exploit natural resources.

The implementation of the plan relies on the West, not Russia. The aggressor does not seek a fair peace; Russian leader Vladimir Putin has "lost his mind and wants war," Zelensky noted.

The first point calls for inviting Ukraine to NATO as soon as possible. The second point concerns strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) by shifting the war onto enemy territory and conducting strikes with long-range weapons across all occupied areas of Ukraine and military infrastructure in the Russian Federation.

The third part of the plan addresses non-nuclear deterrence against Russian aggression and the establishment of a "comprehensive deterrence package" in Ukraine. During a speech in the European Council on October 17, the day after presenting the "victory plan" in the Rada, Zelensky clarified the meaning of this point. The approach of "peace through strength" involves sending missile systems to the AFU. The U.S., the UK, France, Italy, and Germany have already received the necessary components.

"Putin must respect our strength, not make the free world tremble with his threats," the president stated.

The fourth point involves concluding agreements with partners on the protection and joint utilization of critical resources. This pertains to natural resources and metals: uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and others.

The final, fifth point of the "victory plan" stipulates that Ukrainian military personnel will share their experiences with NATO forces. Notably, the second, third, and fourth points of Zelensky's plan contain confidential appendices for partners. The advisor to the president's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, noted that they will not be publicly discussed. These points will address the mathematical aspect: how much weaponry and in what form it will be provided.

Podolyak also stated that the "victory plan" does not mandate the unconditional liberation of all occupied Ukrainian territories through military means. It is necessary to create conditions that make these lands too costly for Russia.

Russia is advancing while Western assistance diminishes

The concept of a just peace for Ukraine in the current battlefield conditions is undermined by the West's fear of escalation. The inability to deliver advanced weaponry, including tanks and aircraft, in large volumes is the reason for the daily advance of the occupying army in Donbas.

The capture of Ugledar did not satisfy the aggressor's appetites: in the vicinity of Toretsk in the Donetsk region, Russian Armed Forces are infiltrating urban areas in small groups, encircling Selydove, and the challenging situation in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions has long been discussed by the AFU military.

Instead of increasing support, the West has begun to hint at inflated expectations from Kyiv. Germany, the second-largest supplier of weapons after the U.S., wants to delay the delivery of heavy equipment due to disbelief in a successful counteroffensive by the AFU to reclaim territories. France is cutting its total military aid by nearly a third. A bilateral agreement between Kyiv and Paris for 2024 anticipated the allocation of 3 billion euros, but in reality, it will amount to just over 2 billion euros by the end of the year.

Military aid packages from the U.S. have become smaller in recent months. The Pentagon reports a reduction in weapon and equipment stocks, as American manufacturers cannot keep up with the enormous demand resulting from the war with Russia.

"The U.S. is ramping up production of key items — 155 mm munitions and Patriot air defense systems — for both supply to Kyiv and replenishing its own stocks. But this is a multi-year process; demand cannot be quickly satisfied," sources from CNN reported.

In these circumstances, the Kremlin predictably described Zelensky's plan as "ephemeral" and urged Ukrainian authorities to "wake up." The document represents a "disguised plan" by the U.S. to continue the war, noted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

"For weeks, there has been talk of some ephemeral peace plan… Most likely, this is the same American plan to fight us to the last Ukrainian, which Zelensky has now camouflaged and called a 'peace plan,'" Peskov said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in June 2024, referred to a "specific and realistic peace proposal." Kyiv must withdraw troops from the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. The second condition is to abandon the idea of NATO membership and adopt a neutral, non-nuclear status for Kyiv.

Russia has secured unlimited military assistance from allies: Iran and North Korea. The latter, in turn, is attempting to send not only artillery munitions and ballistic missiles but also personnel to the Ukrainian front.

It is evident that Putin is prepared for a protracted war, and his "theory of victory" is based on continuous offensives over an indefinite period. Such a tactic risks exhausting manpower and equipment, so sooner or later, a slowdown in the offensive will be necessary in certain areas of the front, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War note.

Gathering wishes: what of Zelensky's "victory plan" can be executed?

"We have shifted almost everything onto our partners, but what requirements do we impose on ourselves? Where are the points about fighting corruption, strengthening democratic institutions? We demand a lot from our partners, but what is our role in this?" — he questions.

It is clear that Putin's "peace proposal" for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four regions is completely unacceptable to Ukraine. Overall, Zelensky's "victory plan," according to the MP, does not represent Kyiv's negotiating position.

"It is merely the priorities of Ukraine's foreign policy," he observes.

The plan articulated by Zelensky is better described as a collection of the Ukrainian side's wishes: the first and seemingly primary point regarding NATO membership is impossible under current conditions, adds political scientist Igor Reiterovich.

The expert emphasizes the importance of the fourth point regarding economic partnership. In his view, foreign companies should have been involved since Ukraine gained independence. The establishment of representations and joint ventures would have ensured budget revenue and provided decent wages for Ukrainians.

The utilization of natural resources, as MP Oleksiy Honcharenko states, explains why Ukraine is needed by the world and how it can repay the assistance provided to it.

"The focus is on resources and our army (the final point concerning experience exchange with NATO forces. — Ed.). Essentially, this is what we can be useful for," Honcharenko notes.

Russia's position on the withdrawal of troops from four regions should not concern Kyiv. It is preferable to compel Russia to sit at the negotiating table, but how to achieve this under conditions of territorial losses in Donbas remains unclear.

"If partners help us fulfill all five points outlined by Zelensky, it may be possible to force the RF to peace. The secret points of the plan may include demands to send advanced weaponry: F-16 aircraft, air defense systems, and Western tanks," concludes Reiterovich.

Strategic agreement with the U.S. instead of plans

In Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan," according to the director of the Center for Sociological Research "Ukrainian Barometer," political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko, the goals and means to achieve them are not entirely aligned, making it appear unconvincing.

"The initiative reflects the authorities' hopes for the West, rather than objectives for Ukraine. Providing troops to Europe, transferring natural resources — these are all subjects of a post-war agreement involving multiple parties. The formula of the plan cannot contain obligations," the expert argues.

World history remembers Lend-Lease, a method for transferring arms from the U.S. to allies without requiring immediate payment. World War II ended in 1945, and it wasn't until 1972 that the USSR and the U.S. managed to reach an agreement regarding the repayment of Lend-Lease debts. Russia finally settled the debt in August 2006. The new Lend-Lease for Ukraine has yet to be activated, as it was during World War II.

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