Sunday10 November 2024
g-novosti.in.ua

Playing "Russian roulette": Can Ukraine regain nuclear weapons, and how would this alter the future of the conflict?

Kyiv relinquished the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, yet this did not prevent an attack from Russia. Ukraine is losing cities in the Donbas region, while NATO only offers promises of support. Focus explores whether weapons of mass destruction could help preserve the state.
"Русская рулетка": возможно ли возвращение ядерного оружия в Украину и как это повлияет на будущее конфликта?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shared insights during a press conference in Brussels on October 17, discussing how he talked about Ukraine's NATO membership with U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump. During their conversation, the Ukrainian leader reminded Trump of Kyiv's abandonment of nuclear weapons in the 1990s.

Ukraine gave up its third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, trusting in the strength of the Budapest Memorandum. This document was signed on December 5, 1994, by the presidents of Ukraine, Russia, and the USA—Leonid Kuchma, Boris Yeltsin, and Bill Clinton—as well as British Prime Minister John Major. Washington guided Kyiv toward this decision for three years, promising assistance in the event of an attack.

Zelensky directly told Trump that the Budapest Memorandum is ineffective. The document did not protect Ukraine from Russian aggression following its renunciation of nuclear weapons.

Будапештский меморандум подписали три президента

"Which of these major countries, all nuclear states, has suffered? All? No, just one—Ukraine. Who gave up nuclear weapons? All? Just one—Ukraine. Who is fighting today? Ukraine. So, what's the solution? Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, which would provide us with protection, or we need some kind of alliance. As of now, we do not know of any effective alliances other than NATO," he emphasized.

Donald Trump responded to Zelensky, stating that Ukraine has legitimate arguments. The German tabloid Bild later reported, citing an anonymous Ukrainian official, that Kyiv could allegedly produce a nuclear bomb "in a few weeks." Ukraine will not tolerate a second invasion by occupiers and will restore its nuclear arsenal.

Later, Ukraine’s presidential communications advisor, Dmytro Litvin, called Bild's information "nonsense". It can be difficult to distinguish between the author's information, journalist Julian Repke, and Russian propaganda.

On the same day, during a subsequent press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelensky noted that Ukraine does not intend to restore its nuclear arsenal. Kyiv entered into the Budapest Memorandum hoping for security guarantees from the signatories, but a major war initiated by Russia still began.

"This is not a very good umbrella for our security. That's why I said I have no alternative but NATO. That was my signal. But we are not creating nuclear weapons," the president assured.

In response, Rutte promised that Ukraine "will be in NATO," and until that moment, the West will do everything to ensure its victory.

Survival of the nation or new escalation: the world's reaction to Ukraine's nuclear weapons

"Russia aims to destroy Ukrainians, and we must take any measures. We have to go beyond international law, as Moscow has effectively neutralized it. Ukraine has the right to speak about both joining NATO and creating nuclear weapons. The question of survival is at stake," comments an analyst.

If France, Germany, or another Western country found itself in a situation similar to Ukraine's, its authorities would hardly engage in moralizing, added Samus.

"Nuclear weapons are not magic; they are a specific tool. For some reason, they have been turned into a strange construct: some countries have the right to possess such weapons, while others do not. No one can explain this, but the "nuclear club" has been formed," the expert notes.

In addition to the so-called legal pool of nuclear states, there is also an illegal one. Israel does not acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, but according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the nation has about 90 nuclear warheads. Such a volume is sufficient to cause a major catastrophe and inflict devastating damage.

Samus includes North Korea, India, and Pakistan in the "illegal" nuclear club. All of them ensure their own security and continue to develop. There is little hope that the West will assist Ukraine in secretly acquiring nuclear weapons, as even an invitation to NATO is not currently on the table, requiring only political will, the analyst adds.

"Discussing the transfer of a nuclear arsenal is absolutely pointless due to the fear of escalating the conflict with Russia. The West does not correct global security mistakes, which have persisted since 2008 when Russia attacked Georgia, and in 2014 when it annexed Crimea," he notes.

"Russian roulette" with a nuclear warhead

Every cruise or ballistic missile fired by the aggressor at Ukraine is a carrier of nuclear weapons. It is impossible to guarantee that a nuclear warhead is not flying during waves of shelling, Samus reminds.

"Why can't we do the same? One of our missiles could have a nuclear carrier. I doubt that the Kremlin would want to play such a game of Russian roulette. The aggressor's air defense systems are weaker than Ukraine's: oil refineries and ammunition depots are unprotected. The prospect of Moscow or St. Petersburg disappearing is unlikely to appeal to Putin," he emphasizes.

According to the expert, Kyiv needs to calculate the consequences of creating nuclear potential and whether allies will support this. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already stated that during negotiations with Zelensky at the EU summit, he did not see Ukraine's desire to become a nuclear power.

"But such a possibility is frightening. The existing or non-existent Ukrainian plan causes panic in Europe. Intelligence agencies are working to determine whether Ukraine really has such a strategy," Orban noted.

Samus points out that if Ukraine is invited to NATO, such a radical measure will not be necessary. Otherwise, nuclear weapons are the only way to preserve the Ukrainian nation.

It is worth noting that the United States has decided to improve the "Kecskemét" air base in Hungary as part of the European Defense Initiative. They plan to deploy F-15 Eagle fighter jets capable of carrying B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs, A-10 Warthog aircraft, and C-5 Galaxy transports at the base.

U.S. President Joe Biden previously expressed readiness to start negotiations with Russia, China, and North Korea regarding nuclear security. In Russia, such negotiations are considered "no more useful than negotiations for a ceasefire with Hitler in 1945."