Syreski announced a counteroffensive: do the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the strength for a new attack, and where might it take place?

Recently, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, stated that Ukraine's victory is impossible if the military only operates defensively. Instead, it is necessary to seize the initiative and counterattack.

"We must seize the initiative and counterattack. We must and we will. Where and who — you will see," said the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Is it Really Possible?

"Sometimes it makes sense to act this way when planning offensive actions — not to disclose that you are planning them, a prime example being the Kharkiv operation. And when you are not planning offensive actions — you can announce that you are planning," noted Hetman.

He emphasized that theoretically, a counteroffensive could occur at any moment. This is because combat orders are given at the last minute to ensure surprise, particularly as was the case during the Kursk operation.

"I am confident that plans are ready if Syrsky mentions it, and if it indeed corresponds to reality, rather than being 'the fog of war,' any unit can receive a so-called combat order outlining its actions for the next few hours — where to advance, what to do, who the neighbors are, what the objectives are, etc.," the expert reported.

Hetman noted that during the preparatory work for the counteroffensive, it is specified how aviation, air defense, communication means, logistics, supply services, medical services, and the informational component of warfare should operate.

Former SBU employee and military expert Ivan Stupak expresses significant doubt about Ukraine's capability for a counteroffensive, particularly due to a lack of resources and assistance from the United States.

In his opinion, Syrsky's statement may be aimed at the Russians, encouraging them to stretch their forces and remain on edge due to a hypothetical Ukrainian offensive.

According to Stupak, the Armed Forces of Ukraine could launch a counteroffensive when Ukraine receives more assistance from the U.S.

Where Will the Armed Forces of Ukraine Advance? The Difference Between an Offensive and a Counteroffensive

Military analyst Pavel Narozhny clarified that a counteroffensive can only occur in areas where the enemy has recently advanced during an offensive, occupied a certain territory, but has not established a firm hold.

He stated that currently, a counteroffensive could only happen in the Donetsk region — around Pokrovsk or in the Kurakhove direction, meaning this is territory that the Defense Forces recently lost control over.

Narozhny is uncertain about the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counteroffensive. For this, a specific number of combat-ready units is needed — at least 3-4 brigades, approximately 20,000 personnel. Moreover, this does not include the brigades currently at the front that are exhausted. Instead, units after rotation and recovery are necessary.

In addition, a large quantity of ammunition, armored vehicles, and specialized demining equipment is required for a counteroffensive. The role of aviation, which was extensively utilized during the offensive in the Kursk direction, is also crucial.

It is worth noting that on October 8, the head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, Alexander Musienko, reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could conduct a new counteroffensive in 2025. Specifically, this requires obtaining a sufficient amount of Western weapons and equipment.

On October 14, ATO veteran Yevhen Dykyi noted that Ukrainian fighters will be capable of launching an offensive and winning the war if the mobilization issue is managed properly. According to him, a successful offensive is possible under the condition of adequate forces and reserves.