Three scenarios for Ukraine in 2025: expert forecasts.

Political experts agree that the situation in Ukraine and its surrounding areas in 2025 will be shaped by two closely linked processes — the ongoing war and potential peace negotiations. The likelihood of initiating such negotiations next year is extremely high. This is largely due to the desire of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, another question arises: will Trump be able to quickly resolve this conflict? Unfortunately, there is currently no clear and confident answer to this, and opinions among experts are divided on this matter.

Optimistic Scenario — End of the War

According to various parameters modeled by politicians, taking into account the political landscape, election results, the electoral campaigns of 2024, the psychological state of Ukrainian society, and a certain imbalance within the Ukrainian government, predicting the possibility of a ceasefire should be approached with caution, according to political scientist Oleg Posternak.

Igor Reiterovich suggests that Donald Trump will likely attempt to accelerate these processes, particularly at the beginning of his presidential term. There may be preliminary agreements regarding the cessation of active hostilities. However, much will depend on Russia's behavior. If it categorically rejects any compromises, Ukraine's partners will have to respond differently, for instance, by increasing support for Ukraine.

"Such an option is also being considered within Trump's administration. But it all depends on what concessions Russia is willing to make. In a realistic scenario, a cessation of active hostilities could be anticipated by mid-2025. However, this does not mean the end of the war. A war concludes with peace, and there will be no peace treaty or anything similar in 2025," says Reiterovich.

According to political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, a ceasefire may occur sometime in the spring (March-April 2025). He believes it will likely be just an agreement to cease fire (a truce or "freeze"). A comprehensive peace agreement for a sustainable, let alone "just" peace, is simply impossible under current conditions, the political scientist argues.

At this point, the political scientist estimates the probability of such a scenario to be roughly 25%.

"If this scenario works out, elections may be held in Ukraine in the fall. According to many specialists, about six months are needed to prepare for post-war elections and to conduct them. Most likely, local elections (which, according to Ukraine's Constitution, are to be held at the end of October 2025) should take place simultaneously with presidential and parliamentary elections that were postponed due to martial law," continues Fesenko.

Oleg Posternak also believes that if a ceasefire is achieved, and martial law is lifted (temporarily or permanently) or transitioned to a special period, Ukraine will face a significant challenge — elections.

"A referendum on ratifying a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia is also possible if it is signed and not limited to just agreements on a ceasefire," says Posternak.

Pessimistic Scenario — Continuation of the War

The majority of analytical developments regarding the prospects of the war between Russia and Ukraine are extremely skeptical about Putin's willingness to end the war through a relative compromise. According to Vladimir Fesenko, purely from tactical considerations, Putin may agree to negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, which will be initiated by Trump. However, Russia will approach these negotiations with a rigid and highly aggressive stance, demanding peace on its terms, through unilateral concessions from Ukraine.

"If Ukraine and the U.S. refuse to make concessions to Russia, the Kremlin may withdraw from negotiations and continue the war, even attempting to intensify military pressure on Ukraine. In that case, the war could last until the end of 2025 or even longer, with the risk of ending on Russia's terms. As long as Russia maintains a military advantage, the Kremlin will continue the war against Ukraine. Within this scenario, there is a high likelihood of increasing the internationalization of the war and expanding its scale," says Fesenko.

He also estimates the probability of this scenario to be approximately 25%.

Meanwhile, retired Colonel and former spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev believes that the continuation of the war in 2025 is more than likely.

Thus, the expert is convinced that combat operations will continue in 2025. Their intensity will be determined by the resource capabilities of both sides. Unfortunately, Russia still has resources to conduct a war of medium intensity, although these are significantly depleted.

"The Ukrainian army in 2025, in my opinion, will fully transition to modern armaments received through cooperation with the U.S. and EU countries. Support from our partners, both technical and financial, will remain critically important," continues Seleznev.

He believes that Trump lacks the arguments that could compel Putin to cease aggression. The war could end swiftly if Putin made the corresponding decision, but the Kremlin leader is not interested in freezing the conflict or any temporary solutions. His goal is to achieve military superiority by creating a buffer zone or even capturing a significant part of Ukraine.

"Therefore, hopes that Trump could quickly end the war are, in fact, illusory. His administration lacks sufficient leverage to pressure Russia into changing its goals. Thus, in 2025, we will likely see a continuation of active hostilities, which will remain a key reality," concludes the former spokesperson of the General Staff.

A More Realistic Scenario — Simultaneous Continuation of War and Peace Negotiations

Vladimir Fesenko currently considers this scenario to be the most likely — at a level of approximately 50%.

"Negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine may be prolonged due to fundamental contradictions between the warring parties, periodically reaching deadlocks, and even being suspended for certain periods. Alongside the negotiations, Russia will continue active military operations against Ukraine, attempting to seize more Ukrainian territories and strengthen its negotiating position. This is Putin's traditional style — to pressure peace negotiations through military means. At the same time, all participants in the negotiations — the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine — will not refuse to negotiate for various reasons. This will somewhat resemble the situation of the war in Donbas from 2014 to 2021, only the intensity and scale of hostilities will be significantly greater," says Fesenko.

Within this scenario, he does not rule out the possibility of China joining the negotiation process. However, it remains to be seen how this will affect the negotiation process itself and its effectiveness.

Ultimately, this scenario should also conclude with some form of peace agreement, the political scientist states. However, it is impossible to predict when exactly this will occur — in the second half of 2025, or even in 2026, and under what conditions. There may also be a situation similar to the Minsk agreements: an agreement may be reached on a ceasefire, but this agreement will be periodically violated.