As of December 23, Ukraine has exported nearly 1.7 million tons of corn, and by the end of the month, the total volume is expected to exceed 2 million tons, despite shipment issues at the beginning of the month that slightly slowed down export rates, reported the analytical cooperative "Pusk," established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agricultural Council.
According to analysts on the VAR Facebook page on Thursday, corn prices are consistently holding at $205–207 per ton on a CPT basis. They predict that corn has the potential to reach $210–215 per ton in January. A key factor that could influence further price increases is the weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina.
"The corn market is experiencing a sort of 'golden period.' In January, any importer wishing to secure supplies will have to turn to Ukraine, as American corn is already sold out. This creates conditions for sellers to dictate prices. However, it is important to remember that in February-March, we may face competitive pressure in the European market due to cheaper American corn," the experts stated.
They noted that Ukrainian corn remains a major player in the European market, while the U.S. is actively exporting to Latin American countries and Mexico. Nevertheless, the price difference between Ukrainian and American corn in the European market is about $10 in favor of American products.
According to forecasts, the market will be sensitive to news about the second crop planting campaign in Brazil and the condition of crops in Argentina, where there are already moisture issues.
"In the last 10 years, the corn market has only experienced stable January and February periods without significant price fluctuations twice. Therefore, the likelihood of obtaining higher prices during this period is quite high. However, by April-May, corn may become a scarce commodity, which would again create conditions for price increases," they summarized in "Pusk."