A dead end for Ukraine: the risks of using ATACMS and the reasons for avoiding attacks on the Crimean Bridge.

On November 17, news emerged that U.S. President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory. As a result, primary targets could include Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region.

Today, on November 19, Ukrainian forces struck one of the enemy's logistics arsenals in the Bryansk region.

"On the night of November 19, 2024, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in coordination with other components of the Defense Forces, delivered fire damage to the arsenal of the 1046 Material Support Center," the General Staff reported.

According to sources from "Censor. net", the Defense Forces used ATACMS ballistic missiles for strikes for the first time. Journalist Yuri Butusov is convinced that such strikes may not lead to a swift turning point in the war but will certainly inflict significant losses on the logistical facilities of the Russian Armed Forces, complicate the enemy's maneuverability and logistics, and force them to stretch their air defense systems further.

Authorization for ATACMS Strikes on Russia: Why This is a Diplomatic Trap for Ukraine

Military expert Dmitry Snegirev believes that the authorization to strike with ATACMS missiles on Russian territory represents a "diplomatic trap" for Ukraine.

He states that this is where the danger for Ukraine lies. Kyiv had argued that it needed weapons capable of changing the course of hostilities. Now, such weapons in the form of ATACMS have been provided, albeit with limited use, but Ukraine's rhetoric will no longer hold. Snegirev noted that within two months, before Trump's inauguration, the Ukrainian side must demonstrate the effectiveness of using these missiles; this is precisely why permission for attacks was granted now. If this does not happen, Trump could argue that ATACMS were provided, but where is the radical change in the course of hostilities?

The expert pointed out that the range of ATACMS is 300 kilometers, while airfields with strategic bombers are located beyond the missile's striking range. He reminded that today a logistics storage facility was attacked in the Bryansk region, but the enemy could relocate them more than 300 kilometers away, making effective use impossible.

"But this will allow Trump to argue and pressure Ukraine with the fact that we provided you with F-16s, ATACMS, and logistical aid totaling 180 billion dollars, but unfortunately, the course of hostilities has not changed. This means a deadlock for both sides, so sit down at the negotiating table," Snegirev explained.

He emphasized that the U.S. will use these missiles as a lever of influence on both sides of the war. For Ukraine, this means a limited striking range and quantity, as well as the inability to use the rhetoric of not providing weapons.

"In other words, we gave you weapons, you did not change the course of hostilities, so sit down at the negotiating table," the expert noted.

Russia is clearly being made to understand that the West supports Ukraine during the negotiation process, strengthening its position in the Kursk region. However, according to Snegirev, if Russia does not sit down at the negotiating table, further permission may be granted for Ukraine to strike anywhere in Russia.

"Trump's plan involves creating a demilitarized zone stretching 1300 kilometers. This is a serious trap for Russia. The length of the Russian-Ukrainian front is 900 kilometers, with the distance along the state border between the Sumy and Kharkiv regions being 300 kilometers. Accordingly, 100 kilometers is the Kursk region, which is controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Snegirev explained.

He stated that Putin insists on maintaining the status quo of the occupied territories at the start of the negotiations. In other words, if the enemy controls the Luhansk region, it remains theirs, but a similar situation applies to Russian territory—around 700 square kilometers will be given to Ukraine. The Russian president understands that this will be a political and informational defeat for him personally. This is why the primary direction of the Russian offensive is not Pokrovske or Kurakhove, but Kursk, Snegirev noted.

"Putin is trying to push the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of the Kursk region before Trump's inauguration. Therefore, it is not coincidental that (allies, - ed.) grant Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory specifically in the Kursk region, so that we maintain control of the situation until the moment of Trump's inauguration, allowing us to strengthen our own negotiating positions," the expert emphasized.

He reported that the enemy is pressing along the entire front, but the Kursk region is strategic for Ukraine.

"We must maintain our presence in the Kursk region at all costs," Snegirev concluded.

"Scholz told Putin that troops must be withdrawn and fire must cease. Putin replied: 'No, we are not ready for such conditions.' The United States takes the next step and grants permission for missile strikes in the Kursk region. I think the next condition will be similar for Putin from our partners. But if Putin refuses, then partners may grant permission for strikes across all of Russia with full missile range," Zhdanov stated.

According to him, allies have decided that they cannot allow Ukraine to lose. After all, a victory for Putin in any form would mean a defeat for the West.

"Therefore, everyone here is fighting for their own interests. When interests align, we are allies. When interests diverge, believe me, the same United States will throw us under the bus without batting an eye. So everyone is fighting for their own. They cannot allow us to lose. They are pressuring Putin to start negotiating. And for them, it is important that we do not lose," explained the military expert.

There is very little public information about the ATACMS missiles that Ukraine possesses, noted military expert Pavel Narozhny. That is, it is unknown which specific model and year of production was provided to us. He pointed out that permission to strike with this weapon on Russian territory will assist in the war. After all, it will be possible to target command posts, fuel storage facilities, munitions, and troop concentrations.

Only Russian Territory: Why Ukraine Does Not Strike the Crimean Bridge

In Snegirev's opinion, there are political agreements between Ukraine and Russia regarding refraining from striking strategic bridges.

"We do not strike the Crimean Bridge; they do not strike bridges across the Dnieper. Why, in fact, have there been no strikes on the Dnieper bridges throughout the years of war? I do not rule out these possible agreements," he stated.

Narozhny reported that from public sources, it is known that Ukraine only has cluster munitions. Meanwhile, there are also high-explosive fragmentary munitions—a large container filled with explosives. When this container falls on a target, it explodes. As a result, a large crater or hole appears; if the explosive falls on a bridge, it will be destroyed. In contrast, a cluster munition is also a large container, but inside it contains smaller munitions, about 900-1000 units. When the warhead opens above the target, the munitions spill out over a large area, each of which explodes.

"This works very well against infantry, unarmored, or lightly armored targets. For example, aircraft, helicopters, cars, or trucks. But if a cluster munition falls on a bridge, it will only scratch the asphalt or destroy the equipment present on the bridge at that moment," the expert explained.

Theoretically, Ukraine can strike a bridge with a cluster munition, but it will not be effective. The situation will be entirely different with high-explosive munitions.

He mentioned that ATACMS is guided by an inertial navigation system and a GPS guidance system. Narozhny noted that the inertial navigation system works on the principle of a children's toy that is spun and pushed, resulting in it returning to the previous state it was in. This system is quite inaccurate. In particular, the error can be measured in tens or hundreds of meters. Therefore, GPS guidance systems are installed in these missiles to correct the trajectory.

"But this guidance system can theoretically be jammed by electronic warfare. All around the Crimean Bridge, there are all sorts of electronic warfare systems that can be deployed. Everything is done to ensure that GPS does not work there," he noted and said that it is excellent to target these missiles at airfields, enemy concentrations, and fuel depots.

Ukrainian "Neptune" Missiles: Why Defense Forces Will Not Strike Crimea with Them

When asked if Ukrainian "Neptune" missiles can strike the Crimean Bridge, Narozhny answered that yes, but why? It is unknown which specific navigation system is used in this missile. He suggested that "Neptune" might also be equipped with GPS and an inertial guidance system.

The expert noted that "Neptune" and ATACMS are completely different missiles. Specifically, the latter