"I believe that Trump has the leverage to influence Putin. The question is whether he is willing to use it. Although he has stated that he is ready… On the other hand, Trump also talks about a territorial compromise. So it’s unclear how he can utilize his leverage and ensure that Russia leaves the occupied territories of Ukraine," he said.
The former U.S. ambassador expressed doubt that Putin would voluntarily agree to leave Ukrainian territory.
"Unless it happens in exchange for Russian territory [in the Kursk region], which Ukraine has occupied," Herbst suggested as one option.
A journalist asked if Trump could revoke the permission granted by current U.S. President Joe Biden for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western weapons.
"I think it would be a mistake for Trump to impose a ban on Ukraine's use of U.S. long-range missiles. Because such a decision would only reduce pressure on Putin instead of increasing it. Allowing the use of missiles is precisely the right way to compel Russia to do what is necessary," Herbst replied.
In his view, Putin is trying "not so much to capture all of Ukraine, but to bring it under his control," and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky understands this.
"I don’t know if Trump currently realizes this. He believes he can persuade Putin and will try to encourage him to end the war. If Trump's attempt fails, then he may come to the conclusion that Putin is the problem—and thus he will start to support Ukraine in every possible way, including with weapons," Herbst believes.
According to him, Trump might change his opinion about Ukraine's potential NATO membership, which he opposes.
"Right now, discussions are ongoing about a 20-year moratorium. And I would take this seriously. But again, if Trump makes real efforts to achieve peace and realizes that Putin does not want that, then Trump may reconsider his stance on Ukraine's NATO membership," the former U.S. ambassador emphasized.
He did not rule out that Trump's plan for resolving the war in Ukraine "might involve part of Ukraine remaining under Russian control, which is very concerning."
"However, as he emphasized, this would guarantee Ukraine's survival and security, thanks to various measures against future Russian attacks. And if this is achieved, then overall such an option would be very positive for Ukraine, albeit with some unpleasant elements," Herbst said.