The threat to the West after ATACMS strikes: why target Dnipro with an intercontinental missile?

On the morning of November 21, Russia used a new type of weapon during its attack on Ukraine. From the Astrakhan region, the occupiers launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the type of which is being established through expert analysis.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian troops targeted enterprises and critical infrastructure in Dnipro with missiles of various types, including ICBMs. The use of the new Russian missile was confirmed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to his assessment, all characteristics, including speed and altitude, correspond to those of an ICBM.

Media sources speculated that the missile launched at Dnipro was the "Rubezh," a carrier of a nuclear charge capable of hitting targets up to 6,000 kilometers away. Reports of the threat of the Russian Armed Forces using the medium-range ballistic missile RS-26 "Rubezh" emerged as early as November 20. On the same day, the U.S. Embassy and a number of European countries closed their embassies in Kyiv.

Videos of the ICBM strikes are circulating on social media, allegedly targeting the "Yuzhmash" plant. The footage shows the missile's warheads scattering, but there were no explosions on the ground as such.

The RS-26 "Rubezh" and other missiles of the same class, such as "Topol" and "Yars," were developed as weapons of mass destruction. "Rubezh" has four separate warheads, each with a yield of 0.3 megaton. This separation system is referred to as a "bus," as explained by the chief editor of Defense Express, Oleg Katkov.

Demonstration of a Nuclear Strike: What is the Point of Hitting Dnipro with an ICBM?

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, believes that by launching an ICBM at Dnipro, Moscow aimed to compel the West to cease its support for Ukraine. This also serves as a kind of signal-response to the strikes by ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory: on the morning of November 20, Ukrainian bombers launched 10 Storm Shadow cruise missiles at the command post of the "North" troop grouping in Mar'ino, Kursk region.

Russia's updated nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in response to Ukraine's use of Western non-nuclear long-range missiles. It is likely that Russian forces demonstrated their readiness to deliver a nuclear strike in Dnipro.

According to him, the available video footage of the ICBM strike shows the consequences of a kinetic impact after parts of the missile fell. This may indicate that the missile was equipped with large-scale models of nuclear warheads.

"I doubt the feasibility of using medium or intercontinental range missiles against Ukraine. Russia has a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. This strike clearly had no practical purpose; it is like 'using a cannon to shoot sparrows'," the analyst opined.

Nuclear warheads can be mounted on "Iskanders," "Dagger" missiles, cruise missiles like X-55 and X-102, and many other munitions. For example, on November 17, 2022, the Russian Armed Forces launched an X-55 cruise missile at Ukraine with a nuclear charge simulator.

The goal of such an action is blackmail, demonstrating capabilities, and raising the stakes by the Kremlin. It is an attempt to intimidate Western leaders and undermine support for Ukraine at a critical moment in the war. The greatest advantage that Russian President Vladimir Putin has in this war is his ability to intimidate leaders of foreign states.

"The criminal strike [on Dnipro] once again proves that Moscow wants to scare the free world. The only possible response is military and political support for Ukraine, lifting all political restrictions in favor of a sound military strategy. Any concessions from Western countries could have significantly worse consequences than the strike on November 21," added Zhmailo.

The family of ICBMs is not intended for targeting such short distances: the missile that hit Dnipro flew about 800 kilometers, adds the head of security programs at the Globalist Center "Strategy XXI" Pavel Lakiychuk.

"American embassies in Kyiv warned, but they struck Dnipro. Were they afraid that Ukrainian air defense would shoot down the missile? Russians have repeatedly claimed the invincibility of the "Dagger" and "Iskander," but the war has proven otherwise. Imagine if a "Yars" were destroyed?" he notes.

From a military-political perspective, the strike on Dnipro appears to represent a shift to a new level of escalation. Even in response to strikes by ATACMS and Storm Shadow, this is an incomparable measure. The technical capability to deliver a tactical nuclear strike exists, but the Kremlin fears the repercussions of such a step not only from the West but also from China and India, military experts agree.

We remind you that Russia intends to restore five production workshops for the manufacture of solid-fuel engines for the "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles and the "Yars" ICBM. The coordinates of the factories are publicly available.

Russian troops are also advancing in Donbas in the areas of Daryino, Kurakhovo, Nizhny Klyn, Kremnevoe, Razdolnoe, Novodonetskoe, and Dal'nee. In the past 24 hours, there have been 153 combat engagements.