The conflict will persist: Britain and France plan to deploy troops to Ukraine. Will this move actually take place?
In Europe, discussions about the deployment of foreign military contingents to Ukraine have resumed. The country is experiencing a new phase of escalation: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are striking Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by the United States and the United Kingdom, while Moscow responds by launching a new type of ballistic missile. Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that the war has taken on a "global character."
Debates regarding Western support in the form of troops or specialists from private defense companies are more relevant than ever in the current circumstances, writes the French newspaper Le Monde, citing informed sources.
These sensitive discussions are classified but have been revived due to the prospect of a potential withdrawal of U.S. support for Kyiv after Donald Trump assumes the presidency on January 20, 2025. The main participants in this dialogue are the United Kingdom and France, which are discussing defense cooperation and the creation of a coalition of allies to support Ukraine and strengthen European security.
The discussions about sending troops to Ukraine, initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron during a meeting of Kyiv's allies in Paris in February 2024, faced resistance from several European countries led by Germany.
"However, this scenario is not yet buried. In recent weeks, it has even been revived thanks to the visit of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to France," the publication emphasizes.
New Realities of the War with Russia
In this context, it is worth recalling a recent statement by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. In an interview with BBC News on November 23, he discussed the absence of "red lines" regarding support for Ukraine. When asked if French troops could engage in combat, he stated that Paris does not rule out any options.
"We will support Ukraine as intensively and for as long as necessary. Why? Because our security is at stake. Every time the Russian army advances by one square kilometer, the threat comes that much closer to Europe," Barrot emphasized.
Aside from the escalation, it is important to consider a new factor—the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential elections. Europe is likely to take a leading role in ensuring Ukraine's security, according to the expert.
The plan for the victory of Volodymyr Zelensky, according to him, involves the deployment of non-nuclear deterrence forces. Ukraine sought to recruit more instructors to train its military, and negotiations on this matter are ongoing.
"The intensification of discussions about sending a military contingent is not in vain. We are entering a phase of new European support for Ukraine; plans have been specifically presented in the French media to signal a pivot to this idea. This also serves as a message to Russia that Ukraine will not be abandoned," emphasizes Musienko.
"It is possible that public opinion in France is being prepared on this topic, but only the current authorities can speak about the specific deployment of military units. Pro-Russian forces may also utilize military rhetoric for their purposes—supporting the far-right," he reflects.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, has repeatedly stated that for her, sending French troops to the front is a "red line."
At the same time, Koziy reminds us of the reaction from Ukrainian representatives: Ukraine stands to gain from additional support in its fight against the aggressor.
"Reinforcement for the Ukrainian Armed Forces by foreign forces is very important, but so far, authorized individuals have not discussed this," the analyst concluded.
It is worth noting that on March 7, 2024, Macron suggested the possibility of sending a French contingent to Ukraine if Russian occupiers advance towards Kyiv or Odesa. However, French troops would "effectively be present" in Ukraine without participating in combat operations.