Monday04 November 2024
g-novosti.in.ua

The war won't end tomorrow: what’s missing in the "victory plan" and will Ukraine join NATO before the conflict concludes?

For the second consecutive day, Ukrainians are discussing the "victory plan" presented by President Zelensky. FOCUS inquired with military personnel about their assessment of this "document" and the likelihood of a swift end to the conflict.
Война не завершится завтра: чего не хватает в "плане победы" и станет ли Украина частью НАТО до окончания конфликта?

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky presented the "victory plan" to the Verkhovna Rada on October 16. It includes five points regarding:

  • inviting Ukraine to NATO before the war ends;
  • continuing operations on the territory of the Russian Federation and lifting bans on strikes;
  • deploying a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package in Ukraine;
  • Ukraine's economic potential and natural resources;
  • the post-war period — "the most experienced military contingent" in Ukraine.

According to the advisor to the head of the President's Office, Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukraine needs two components — real effective sanctions and long-range weapons.

The Reality of the "Victory Plan": The War Will Not End Tomorrow

Many Ukrainians may find the "victory plan" unrealistic or doomed to fail, but at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, many things also seemed unreal to Ukrainians. Now we have what we have, stated Lieutenant of the 47th OMBr Anastasia Blishchik.

She noted that perhaps many expected the "victory plan" to contain points indicating that the war would end tomorrow. But it is good that Ukrainians no longer indulge in illusions, as they did before and at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

"When the semi-scale war began, we also underestimated the enemy, drawing an image of a fool who steals toilets. But no, our enemy is strong; our enemy is a powerful army equipped with a lot of technology and weapons. Most importantly, they have a huge human resource that they utilize and do not hesitate to expend. If we say now that we are no longer ready to fight and that we should sit down at the negotiating table with Putin, then if I were in Putin's place, I would not stop. I would go further and take Ukraine, dividing it along the Dnieper," the lieutenant emphasized.

Blishchik believes it is good that Zelensky understands the realities and demands what will ease the work of the military. This includes assistance from allies and permission to strike the territory of the Russian Federation. She regrets, like all Ukrainians, that the war will not end tomorrow, but we must prepare for prolonged hostilities.

Major of the Armed Forces, Deputy Commander of the 3rd OShBr Maxim Zhorin stated that no plan cancels the need to fight, which everyone needs to realize.

"Otherwise, after these news, everyone will just wait for victory again. We can discuss everything, but without placing unnecessary hopes and without putting on our heads dreams of 'soon everything will be as before'," Maxim Zhorin wrote.

According to him, living with hopes is normal. However, we need to ensure that hopes do not distract attention from reality. The Ukrainian reality is tangible advancement of the RF Armed Forces, their superiority in numbers and armaments, and a united enemy. Zhorin noted that in such a reality, the only possible plan is to gather all forces and fight.

Ukrainian serviceman Stanislav Bunyatov, with the call sign "Osman," noted that the "victory plan" could only be envisioned in the context of a Third World War.

"The conditions announced today are nothing more than 'not to lose what is left.' Although against such an enemy, without exaggeration, this is already a victory," the fighter said.

Ukraine in NATO: What Are the Chances of Joining Before the War Ends

When asked about the chances of Ukraine joining NATO before the war ends, Anastasia Blishchik stated that partners need to "take their balls in their hands" and make this decision instead of fearing Putin. In her view, the West simply fears the Kremlin leader due to his threats. As a result, Putin feels his power and understands that he is feared, which means he believes he is acting correctly. Therefore, actions need to be taken three steps ahead.

Serviceman of the Armed Forces, former MP Igor Lutsenko believes that the question is when the war will end.

In his opinion, Ukraine can join NATO when the internal position within the Alliance changes. Right now, there are anti-Ukrainian Hungary and Slovakia, pro-Russian Turkey, which actively cooperates with the RF. He noted that at least these countries, in one way or another, do not contribute to Ukraine's accession to NATO. If something changes, for example, politically within Hungary and Slovakia, then yes. However, that will take at least 3-4 years.

Serviceman and lawyer Masi Naiem believes that Ukraine's accession to NATO would be just, but everything will be decided after the US elections.

The War on Russian Territory: Will There Be Uprisings Among Russians?

The "victory plan" includes a point about moving the war to the territory of the RF so that its citizens begin to understand what it is and turn their hatred towards the Kremlin. Serviceman Blishchik does not believe that Ukrainian strikes on enemy territory will help stop the war.

"I don't think that Russians will gather tomorrow and start taking to the streets for protests. They will remain silent, they will endure. However, it is clear that it will be easier for us. Because we need to strike their warehouses. We need to ensure that all these 'Shahed' drones and missiles do not fly at us. We need to destroy their aviation that launches KABs. We need this long-range weaponry, air defense systems, as many missiles as possible so that it becomes much easier for us here and so that Russians cannot achieve their goals," she stated.

She believes that it is currently difficult at the front because Ukraine feels the shelling, and this is a constant strain. In particular, there has not been a moment when soldiers could scatter shells as Russians do, sitting in their trenches unable to raise their heads. This means we are constantly lacking something, while the occupiers have everything they need. Russia has a powerful ammunition and missile production capacity. Ukraine, on the other hand, needs to ensure that Russians cannot utilize these resources and find themselves in a situation where they have nothing to fight with.

Lutsenko is also convinced that the likelihood of uprisings is quite low, while strikes on the RF are more likely to radicalize and unite the people around their leader.

"These strikes should happen, but their goal of transferring the war to the enemy's territory should not be to convince their people of anything, to overthrow Putin, or do anything else, but simply to deprive Russia of the necessary resources for the war," he said.

In Lutsenko's opinion, Russians will not turn against the Kremlin. There may be processes within the country, but they will not be directly related to Ukraine transferring the war to RF territory.

"The people there are quite passive; there is also no powerful partisan war against us. Other Russians are indifferent; they will live under anyone. If they do anything, it will likely be in favor of Putin because they do not like us," the military explained.

Masi Naiem does not believe in the subjectivity of Russians. As practice shows, they only think about their political elite when they experience "even more pain."

"I think that mass strikes across most cities in Russia may give some hint that they (the Russians — ed.) will start to move. Do I believe this will stop the war? Well, unlikely," he stated.

What the "Victory Plan" Lacks

The "victory plan" emphasizes the importance of conducting joint defensive operations with European neighbors to intercept drones in Ukrainian airspace. According to Igor Lutsenko, Western partners need to train together with Ukrainians to counter drones. This means testing new anti-drone systems of various kinds. The main thing is to train personnel so they become accustomed to the fact that a drone war is imminent.

Naiem believes that this means that, conditionally, Turkey will provide ships that will approach Ukrainian shores and intercept Russian drones. However, he does not think this will be the only air defense measure.

"Perhaps, if there is a unified air defense, then partners should provide their personnel. If they provide their personnel, they are essentially entering the war," he explained.

Igor Lutsenko is convinced that the prospect of the "victory plan" is that it will be talked about for a while but then forgotten. Ukraine must constantly send some signal.

"One type of signal is the word 'plan', a document called 'plan'. After that, perhaps we need to come up with something else. The main thing is not to be forgotten, to be constantly in the public eye through all possible channels," he stated.

According to him, for victory, Ukraine needs to remain in the public eye constantly. But Western countries are very cool towards Ukrainian proposals.

"We need to keep hammering this rock gradually, and we have had some success in this. We see that at one point we were given nothing but Javelins, and now we already have F